Closing Arguments

Just one week before the election, and it’s wild what we find ourselves talking about:

Obama Campaign

We’re told by the MSM that Sen. Obama has shifted to making less partisan “closing arguments” (like the lawyer he is) to try to seal the deal and finish ahead.

• He’s not doing any press conferences.
• He’s bought ad time on three major networks (FOX, NBC, CBS) for a 30 minute Presidential-like Address to the nation.
• He’s focusing on states that Pres. Bush won in 2004 that he believes he can flip.

And since the MSM has basically decided that he’s won, I don’t expect to see him face any tough questions, and I don’t forsee any November surprises.

In the meantime, his campaign is still on the defensive, altering the definitions of terms to control the conversation.  It will probably come down to the ground game.

McCain Campaign

Sen. McCain seems to be focusing his time on Pennsylvania, trying to make up for the loss of territory elsewhere.  Because it’s not really the “horse-race” numbers that count, but the individual states, each campaign has a calculus they are running to figure out where to spend their last week where it will make the most difference.  Obviously the McCain camp believes they have a chance in PA, or else they would be working elsewhere.

McCain’s main points:

• He’s calling Sen. Obama a redistributor—focusing on Socialism and the remarks of Joe the Plumber.
• He’s highlighting the fact that should Sen. Obama win that there’s a chance that the Democrats might have full control of government was well as an un-filibusterable majority in the U.S. Senate.
• He’s focusing on the economy, and the fact that the last thing it needs is a capital gains tax increase to cause more people to take their money out.

On his behalf, a lot of independent groups are showing ads on Abortion and the connections Sen. Obama has, but I’m not sure that this is or will have any impact.  The decisions were made in absence of the data on the man, and there’s little that will change that now.

That’s why I believe you’re seeing articles coming out now about how bad the media bias is.  And they’re excusing it by saying that they’re reflecting what’s happening on the campaign trail, neglecting to see that they create a self-fulfilling prophecy¹.

Palin’s Dilemma

Has she gone rogue?  Doubtful.  It looks to me like the McCain campaign has decided to pull out all of the stops.  Many on the right have been begging for her to be un-muzzled for a long time, and it looks as though we’re finally getting our wish.

That leads to plausible deniability.  Should the tactic fail, the McCain camp has already laid the groundwork to say that she did it on her own, and was told not to.  Should it work, they can claim that it was a strategy they had, and that they were burnishing her credentials as an independent-minded reformer/maverick in her own right.

And she’s got a good line about the clothing issue as well:

“Just like the lighting and the staging and everything else that the RNC purchased, I’m not taking them with me,” she said at a rally in Tampa, Florida.

It really was all about image, and she’s correct to place it back there.

Biden

Who?

1. The press reports that Sen. McCain is doing poorly.  People see that the press say that, so they are more likely to back a winner, and start thinking about backing Sen. Obama, or not voting.  That affects the polls, and makes Sen. McCain continue to do poorly, which they report on… [↩]