It was said that the election in 2008 was the earliest start of any election season, with many of the people that were vying for the job campaigning in early 2007. Political pundits were having fun trying to guess not only who was running, but who would win.
As we all know now, they were all very wrong and had the wrong calculus, so it shouldn’t surprise us to see that they’re at it again—trying to figure out who will run against Pres. Obama in 2012, and talking about it like Pres. Obama will be invincible and have the approval rating he does when he runs again.
Predicting the Future is Folly
Anyone who attempts to predict the future—especially this far in advance—is engaging in the same folly as those that play the “what if” game. Basically, there are so many things that could happen between now and then to render the whole game moot.
How about these possibilities:
- President Obama’s stimulus plan ends up forcing the country to dilute the dollar so much that a new currency is accepted as the world currency. Nations devalue the dollar to the point that it’s worthless paper and citizens see their savings flushed down the toilet. The polls state that President Obama has the worst approval rating in history, and anyone that runs against him is destined to win.
- Guantanamo Bay detention center is closed, and once the inmates are assigned prisons in the U.S. they team up with the current prison population and become more than can be handled. Sleeper cells in the U.S. stage another big attack, break these prisoners free, and start homicide bombing shopping malls.
- President Obama’s plans work well, the economy rebounds, and the polls show that he is at 90% approval rating because of some concessions he made on his second Supreme Court pick. He’s also brokered a peace treaty with Israel, Palestine and Iran. Whoever runs against him has no chance of winning.
Feel free to conjure up your own scenarios in the comments below.
Problems With the Current Leader-Wannabes
If any of the current crop believed they were a good pick or had a chance, they would have run against McCain. The point is, the rules still are in favor of meddling, and the GOP base has not yet defined itself. While I believe a good leader could help do just that, this is a little too soon to be trying to assert yourself as leader.
This is part of where I believe former Speaker Newt Gingrich could have the right tactic—suggesting reforms and trying to build a grass root consensus.
Gov. Sarah Palin—who many voted for in 2008 (along with that guy on the top of the ticket)—has more to deal with since her daughter and her granddaughter’s father did not get married. The media tried to transform this woman with a great story from a successful governor to “trailer trash” and the fact that her daughter and her ex-boyfriend are fighting over the baby and talking about the baby in public does not help her.
And I’m sure there are things about the other contenders that will come out.
Though some predicted Sen. Obama would become President based on his speech at a convention, I’m not sure that the future Republican President can be found in the current crop of leaders.
One thought on “Election 2012”
President Obama would probably have won againt most any candidate, but that was mostly because of the perception that President Bush drove the US into a ditch.
I want the Republican candidate – whoever it might be – to win, but not at the cost of failure. I don’t think the US is anywhere near ready for another failure. So I’d scratch off the first two options, and hope that there’s a Republican candidate who inspires people more than a successful Obama can.