Last night I opened up the Drudge Report to find a crazy big red headline:
GALLUP SHOCK: 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS
Now, Rush Limbaugh has been saying for quite some time that the polls would get closer near the end because the race really is closer, but it’s only near the end that pollsters actually want to be closest to being right—because they want business.
The only thing I’ve read to explain the discrepancy is the fact that pollsters are having trouble this year trying to gauge just how the electorate has changed and how their models reflect likely voter turn out. The Gallup poll mentioned above has the traditional models, while some of the models predicting an Obama landslide are skewing more Democrat than Republican.
Zogby says that Sen. Obama has not sealed the deal, and it’s still anyone’s race.
Another interesting poll brought to my attention was this one:
When given a choice about how government should address the numerous economic difficulties facing today’s consumer, Americans overwhelmingly—by 84% to 13%—prefer that the government focus on improving overall economic conditions and the jobs situation in the United States as opposed to taking steps to distribute wealth more evenly among Americans. [Hat Tip: Say Anything]
Taken in June by Gallup, this says to me that if Sen. McCain could really make the argument about wealth redistribution stick, he would win this thing hands down.
Too bad we have so many voting because of things other than policy.