May 28, 2022

Is McCain Headed For a Upset?


Some would say yes.  What I found interesting was some of the commentary from Michael Barone.  Specifically:

And what about Barack Obama? In most of the presidential primaries, Sen. Obama received about the same percentage of the votes as he had in the most recent polls. The one notable exception was in New Hampshire, where Hillary Clinton’s tearful moment seems to have changed many votes in the last days.

On first glace this may give Republicans cause for concern—except if you realize that if a person only has 48% of the vote, and that’s all he’s going to get, then you’re candidate is going to win.

Then again, if you’re the Huffington Post, you’ve figured out how to be selectively angry if the polls don’t conform to what you believe truth to be.

The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP’s poll released today. That’s almost double the number – it’s totally implausible.

Let’s not talk about the other polls samples and pay attention to them.  When a couple of big polls show the race tightening, they must be wrong—right?  I mean, it’s inevitable!

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