This week we saw that the Dobbs ruling did exactly like most of it said that it would. Dobbs did not outlaw abortion in the United States– it returned the question to the people and the states. So while some states could come close to banning abortions altogether, others could have abortion available until birth!
So, when Kansas rejected a constitutional amendment to their state constitution, the pro-abortion side of the argument rejoiced and tried to spin it as the GOP being out of touch with America. But that’s not exactly what the polling shows:
What you see here is that there are as many people in this survey that want it Illegal in most cases as there is that want it legal in all cases. When asked differently you get this:
This shows you that while many believe that abortion should be an option in the first trimester (12 weeks), and in the second and third trimesters there is little support. When you look at the “in general” you see that the number almost matches, which could mean that most people thinking about abortion aren’t thinking of third-trimester abortion, but early abortion. It also shows how radical the Congress and New York/California positions are to support it until birth.
Based on these numbers, it seems like it would have been easy to get abortion banned after 12/15 weeks, and part of the issue was all of the attention so closely after Dobbs. I expect many states to end up allowing abortion before the 12-week marker, and I expect that the popular vote will be behind it. That doesn’t mean pro-life people should not or will not argue for complete abolition, but it also means that if this passes, it will be all the easier to come in later and abolish it altogether because it won’t be as profitable, and the stigma and momentum will be on the side of life.