According to John Zogby—the pollster who got the 2000 electoral contest closest—McCain has taken his first lead since the convention:
“Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. “Obama’s lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama’s good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on.”
The rolling data has Sen. Obama leading 49.1% to 44.1%, but what Zogby is saying is that if Sen. McCain continues to have good days, we will see the numbers shrink.
You’ll remember that we’ve talked before about how Sen. Obama only polled in the actual election as well as he did the day before the election during in the primaries. If this is the case, we might see another close one.