Alarmed at the possibility that the Republican Party might pick Rudolph Giuliani as its presidential nominee despite his support for abortion rights, a coalition of influential Christian conservatives is threatening to back a third-party candidate. [Hat Tip: Jill Stanek]
It appears that many Conservative Christians can’t come around to voting for someone pro-choice, as well as the other social conservative positions.
What this means is that if the Republicans go through with nominating him as their candidate for President, there’s a strong possibility that Conservative Christians will either not vote or pick up someone else.
The Evangelical Outpost makes the case that the primary voters should not pick Giuliani:
Since the GOP is never going to nominate Hillary, the most rational choice for Group A [those who like Hillary] would be to skip the Republican primary altogether and vote in the Democratic primaries. The most rational choice for Group C [Those who do not want Giuliani] would be C3–anyone other than Giuliani. So what should Group B [Those who like Giuliani but don’t want Hillary more] choose? Even though their first preference is B2, they have to consider how Group C will vote.
For Group B, choice B3 is what game theorists call the minimax condition, the choice which minimizes the maximum possible loss. They don’t get Giuliani but they don’t get Hillary either. (That same outcome, by the way, is the optimum choice for Group C.)
Even if they were unable to communicate with Group C, the most rational choice for Group B would be to choose the minimax. But they have even more incentive because social conservatives (Group C) have communicated to Giuliani supporters (Group B) that they will not accept option C2. All things being equal, it would therefore be irrational for primary voters to choose Giuliani…. [Hat tip: Vox Day]
So, regardless of whether you agree with the vote your conscience or vote who you think could win, it appears as though the Conservative Christians have thrown down the gauntlet against Giuliani, and made voting for him a foolish option.